Temporal-IRL: Modeling Port Congestion and Berth Scheduling with Inverse Reinforcement Learning
This work addresses port congestion forecasting for supply chain management, but it is incremental as it applies an existing method to a new domain-specific dataset.
The paper tackled the problem of predicting port congestion by modeling berth scheduling using inverse reinforcement learning on historical vessel data, achieving excellent results in forecasting vessel sequencing and stay times at a specific terminal.
Predicting port congestion is crucial for maintaining reliable global supply chains. Accurate forecasts enableimprovedshipment planning, reducedelaysand costs, and optimizeinventoryanddistributionstrategies, thereby ensuring timely deliveries and enhancing supply chain resilience. To achieve accurate predictions, analyzing vessel behavior and their stay times at specific port terminals is essential, focusing particularly on berth scheduling under various conditions. Crucially, the model must capture and learn the underlying priorities and patterns of berth scheduling. Berth scheduling and planning are influenced by a range of factors, including incoming vessel size, waiting times, and the status of vessels within the port terminal. By observing historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) positions of vessels, we reconstruct berth schedules, which are subsequently utilized to determine the reward function via Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL). For this purpose, we modeled a specific terminal at the Port of New York/New Jersey and developed Temporal-IRL. This Temporal-IRL model learns berth scheduling to predict vessel sequencing at the terminal and estimate vessel port stay, encompassing both waiting and berthing times, to forecast port congestion. Utilizing data from Maher Terminal spanning January 2015 to September 2023, we trained and tested the model, achieving demonstrably excellent results.